NBA Champions' DNA Analysis
Motivation
In a recent e-sports show, I came across an intriguing idea articulated by a former player-turned-commentator. He recounted advice from his former coach, who emphasized that for a team to achieve success, at least three out of five players must consistently outperform their opponents. As a lifelong NBA enthusiast, this notion sparked a series of questions in my mind. Does this principle hold true in the NBA landscape? And if so, how can we objectively measure whether a player outperforms their counterparts?
Methodology
To ensure a fair comparison of player performance, a method was developed to evaluate each player's effectiveness based on their playing time. This involved analyzing their points, assists, rebounds, and other key stats per minute played. A player is considered to outperformed if they rank in the top 60% compared to others in the same statistic.
Project Objective
- Analyze NBA Final Teams (2019-2023) to identify strengths and weaknesses based on key statistics.
- Determine the number of players who outperformed in each Final Team for every key statistics
Key Statistics for Analysis:
- Points per minute (PTS)
- Assistances per minute (AST)
- Offensive Rebounds per minute (ORB)
- Defensive Rebounds per minute (DRB)
- Blocks per minute (BLK)
- Steals per minute (STL)
- Turnovers per minute (TOV)
- Assist-to-Turnover ratio (AST/TOV)
- Personal Fouls per minute (PF)
- Free throw percentage (FT%)
- 2-point-shot percentage (2PT%)
- 3-point-shot percentage (3PT%)
- Effective field goal percentage (eFG%)
- Box Plus Minus (BPM)
- Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
Analysis Plan
- For each NBA Final Team (2019-2023), calculate the performance metrics for each player.
- Determine the top 60% for each statistic to identify players who outperformed.
- Summarize the findings to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each NBA-Final-Team
Performance Breakdown
Toronto Raptors (2019 Champions): Consistency is Key
The 2019 NBA Champions, the Toronto Raptors, demonstrated the importance of consistency, with at least 3 players excelling in every key statistic. The '3nD' concept was evident, with up to 6 players excelling in steals and 5 showing high shooting percentages from beyond the arc. Additionally, they showcased a remarkable balance between low turnovers, ranking second in the whole playoffs, and high assist-to-turnover ratios, ranking third in the playoffs.
Special shoutout to Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, who excelled in every key stat except turnovers, and Pascal Siakam, who excelled in 9 key stats, both of whom played crucial roles in leading their team to victory against one of the most dominant teams of all time.
Golden State Warriors (2019 Runner-Up): Strong Performance, But Defensive Shortcomings
The 2019 runner-up, the Golden State Warriors, emphasized consistency, with at least 4 players performing strongly in almost every statistic and an impressive 6 players shining in five of them. However, they struggled in defensive rebounds, with only 2 players standing out.
Another critical factor was the imbalance between assists and assist-to-turnover ratio (AST/TOV), with 4 players having high turnover numbers and only 3 countering with a strong AST/TOV ratio. This imbalance was exploited by their opponent, the Raptors, as a key factor in their defeat.
Additionally, injuries to All-Star players during the playoffs like DeMarcus Cousins and Klay Thompson (each excelling in 6 key stats), and former Finals MVP Kevin Durant (who excelled in 10 key stats), also contributed to their defeat against the Raptors.
Los Angeles Lakers (2020 Champions): Potent Combination of Shooting, Steals, and Rebounds
The Lakers' triumphant 2020 campaign hinged on a formidable blend of three-point precision, defensive prowess, and dominant rebounding led by LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Impressively, 8 players excelled in offensive rebounds (ORB), 7 in steals (STL) — both leading the 2020 playoffs — and 6 demonstrated sharpshooting beyond the arc.
Anthony Davis and LeBron James delivered standout performances, each making remarkable contributions in 12 and 13 key stats, respectively. Their exceptional efforts compensated for team weaknesses in points (3 Players, including LeBron and Davis) and free throw percentage (only 2 players), marking the lowest among all teams in the 2020 playoffs.
Miami Heat (2020 Runner-Up): Balanced Offense and Defense, Yet Falling Short
The 2020 runner-up, the Miami Heat, maintained a strong balance between offense and defense, boasting 5 players excelling in points and 7 in the advanced stat Box Plus Minus (BPM) . They thrived on excellent ball control and movement, with 7 players leading in assist-to-turnover ratio and 6 in assists, topping the 2020 Playoffs in both categories. Special attention goes to Jimmy Butler, who proved instrumental on both ends of the court, excelling in points, offensive rebounds (ORB), steals (STL), blocks, and 5 other key stats.
However, their defeat to the Lakers can be attributed to relatively low three-point shooting percentages, along with underwhelming performances in steals and offensive rebounds, where just 3 players performed well in each category. Additionally, the absence of Bam Adebayo for parts of Game 1 and the entirety of Games 2 and 3 also impacted their performance, given his outstanding performance across 10 key stats.
Milwaukee Bucks (2021 Champions): Stunning Dominance in Both Ends of the Court
The Milwaukee Bucks showcased stunning offensive dominance throughout the playoffs. They had 6 players excelling in points and offensive rebounds, and 5 players leading in Player Efficiency Rating (PER), leading the entire postseason in all three categories. Defensively, they demonstrated discipline with only 2 players committing excessive fouls, the second-lowest in 2021. Special attention goes to Jrue Holiday, known for low fouls drawn and high steals ranking.
The team compensated for their lack of three-point shooting (with only 1 player excelling) through impactful individual performances. Kris Middleton contributed significantly across 7 key statistical categories, while Giannis Antetokounmpo excelled in 9, underscoring their pivotal roles in the team's success.
Phoenix Suns (2021 Runner-Up): Consistency vs. Overcoming Challenges
The Phoenix Suns reached the 2021 Finals with strong advanced stats and notable consistency. The team from Arizona boasted 5 players outperforming in PER and 6 in BPM, with at least 3 players excelling in every key statistic. High efficiency at the free-throw line and in blocks also bolstered Phoenix, leading them to win the first 2 games of the Finals series.
However, their consistency and solid numbers were ultimately not enough to overcome the outstanding performances of Giannis Antetokounmpo's team. Additionally, poor performances from some players, notably Deandre Ayton, the first pick of the 2018 draft, in Games 4 and 6, contributed to their defeat in the Finals
Golden State Warriors (2022 Champions): Strength in Numbers
Special shoutouts go to role players who delivered All-Star performances, such as Gary Payton II, excelling in 11 key stats, and Jordan Poole, with 9. Of course, Finals MVP Stephen Curry stood out, outperforming in 10 key stats, and delivering unforgettable games.
Boston Celtics (2022 Runner-Up): Strong Numbers, Tough Loss
The 2022 runner-up, the Boston Celtics, also showcased impressive numbers throughout the playoffs and finals, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the Golden State Warriors. The team from Boston had at least 5 players excelling in 10 key stats, outperforming the Warriors in free throw percentage, and exhibiting more discipline by committing fewer fouls.
However, the most basic statistic, points, might explain their defeat. Boston had 3 players outperforming in scoring compared to GSW's 4. This slight difference was evident in the game outcomes. In the 4 games that Boston lost, they had 4 players scoring at least 10 points. In contrast, in the 2 games they won, 5 players reached double digits.
Denver Nuggets (2023 Champions):: Defensive Prowess and Shooting Efficiency
Special shoutout to role players like Bruce Brown, who outperformed in 10 key stats, and rookie Christian Braun, who excelled in 5. The team stars Jamal Murray (10 key stats) and Finals MVP Nikola Jokic, the "Joker," who dominated with 12 key stats, were instrumental in the Nuggets' success.
Miami Heat (2023 Runner-Up): A Surprising Climb and a Steep Fall
The Miami Heat were underdogs who surprised everyone during their playoff run, but the mountain proved too high to climb. Commanded by Eric Spoelstra, the team defeated several contenders, showcasing consistent numbers in points and assists, with 5 players excelling in each category.
Besides the stunning work of their head coach, their efficiency in three-point shooting, free throw percentage were key factors in keeping them alive. The Heat had 6 players excelling beyond the arc, with notable contributions from role players Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, and Caleb Martin. At the free-throw line, an impressive 8 players excelled, the highest by far in the whole playoffs.
Special credit goes to All-Star Jimmy Butler, who outperformed in 9 key stats, with remarkable personal numbers in points, assists, offensive rebounds, steals, and advanced stats like PER and BPM. Despite their efforts, the altitude in Denver symbolized the formidable challenge they ultimately couldn't overcome.
Key Insights into NBA Champions
Consistent High Performance
- Almost every NBA champion team had at least 3 players who outperformed in every key stat.
- Teams that didn’t meet this criterion compensated with stunning individual performances.
Superstar and Sidekick Dynamic
- Every champion team featured a superstar who outperformed in more than 9 key stats.
- These teams also had at least one "sidekick" with brilliant performances who provided crucial support.
Role Players' Importance
- Superstars' performances alone aren't always enough; collective teamwork becomes essential.
- Role players coming off the bench are indispensable, as they can change the game's dynamic and allow the head coach to strategize effectively.
Mindfulness and Discipline
- Champion teams exhibit good defense and take care of the ball, which helps them stand out.
- Efficient ball control and shooting accuracy are also critical components of their success.
Champion DNA
When a team combines consistency, superstars, valuable role players, and mindfulness, they possess the "Champion DNA."
Comments
Post a Comment